Logo Minnapadi
aboutusmpi.png
<< Back To Daily Report

Morning Dew 11 October 2019

FOKUS

WEATHERING GLOBAL GROWTH

According to the World Bank’s East Asia and Pacific Economic update, economic growth in Indonesia is expected to grow slower than that of last year’s on the back of soft commodity prices that has resulted in export curb. However, 2019F/20F growth could hit 5.0%/5.1%, much higher than Emerging and developing economies’s growth at 3.7%/4.2%. That said, accomodative monetary policy (i.e. interest rate cut) is seen as a tool to support growth, which could boost private investment.

 

Fears may have intensified thanks to China’s slowdown. The World Bank projects lower growth for China at 5.9%/5.8% in 2020F/21F, after an estimated 6.1% in 2019F. This is due to shrinking labor force, lower ROI, and muted productivity growth. Also, U.S. tariffs by 10% on US$300B of Chinese goods is estimated to cut China’s GDP growth by 0.2%. That said, Indonesia’s commodity exporters could face challenges as a result of lower export demand.

 

JCI

JCI declined by 5.52 points or -0.1% to 6,023.6. The total transaction volume reached 12B shares, or equivalent with Rp 8.3T. The foreign investors recorded a foreign net sell of Rp 564.5B, yielding a net foreign buy of Rp 51.1T. 

 

Five sectors advanced, led by property (+0.87%), mining (+0.73%), and miscellaneous industry (+0.53%). While weakening was led by agriculture (-0.77%), consumer goods (-0.63%), and trade (-0.61%). Stocks supporting JCI included BBCA (+0.7%), BMRI (+1.6%), and TPIA (+1.8%). In contrast, JCI burdening stocks were BBRI (-1.8%), ICBP (-4.6%), and UNVR (-0.7%).

 

U.S. NEWS

U.S. stocks closed higher for a second straight day after President Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He at the White House on Friday, 11 October (GMT-4), bolstering hopes that the U.S. was looking to strike a resolution soon. At the same time, Liu He said China is willing to reach an agreement to prevent further escalation in the trade tension. The DJIA rose 0.58%, to 26,499.59, the S&P 500 gained 0.65%, to 2,938.33 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6%, to 7,950.78.

 

U.S. Treasury yield rose as high hopes on this 2-day trade talks between U.S and China. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield pushes above 1.6% after minutes from the ECB September meeting highlighted rifts within its policy-making committee, casting doubt on further easing and sparking a selloff in European government paper spills into U.S. The 2-year notes were down 4/32 to yield 1.54% and the benchmark 10-year notes fell 22/32 to yield 1.66%.

 

Oil prices rose as trader’s optimism over the U.S.-China trade talks. Meanwhile, OPEC in its monthly report, trimmed its forecast for 2019 world oil-demand growth but left its outlook for 2020 unchanged. At the same time, it cut its outlook for non-OPEC supply growth in 2019 and 2020. Brent crude up by +1.68% to $59.30/barrel and WTI crude went up +2.13% to $53.71/barrel.

 

MACRO UPDATE

EXPANSIVE INDONESIA PMI WITH SLOWER GROWTH 

The slowing down of processing industry performance was seen in 3Q19 indicated by PMI at 52.04% compared to the previous quarter at 52.66%. Nevertheless, the performance was above the Nikkei PMI at 49.23%; thus, considered expansive. In 4Q19, the processing industry is forecasted to experience limited expansion mainly on the food beverage and tobacco sector in line with Christmas and end-of-year celebrations. In both 3Q19 and 4Q19F, the highest PMI was obtained by fertilizer, chemical, and rubber goods AT 55.84% and 54.70%, respectively. Wood goods and other forestries stayed at the contraction zone but improving (48.51%) in 3Q19. In 4Q19F, all economic sectors will expand. However, the slowest growth occurred to iron and steel basic metals.

 

INDONESIA BUSINESS ACTIVITY IN 3Q19 ROSE 13.39%

Bank Indonesia Business Activity Survey (SKDU) results in 3Q19 posted a positive Weighted Net Balance (SBT) of 13.39% Vs. 19.17% in 2Q19. Those decelerate mainly originated from the agricultural food crops sub-sector which was affected by the prolonged dry season. Construction was the most supporting SBT sector. The survey results also indicate that a slowdown in SKDU will still occur in 4Q19 with an SBT of 9.13%. From the financial side, the condition of liquidity and profitability of the business community and access to credit are still quite good although relatively declining compared to the previous quarter.

 

COMPANY UPDATE

TIPHONE COLLABORATES WITH GRAB INDONESIA

PT. Tiphone Mobile Indonesia (TELE) launched a new product “GrabGift Shop”, the product was established in cooperating with Grab Indonesia (Grab). TIPHONE GrabGift Shop Customers will get Grabcar discount and can find it  easier on GRAB portal. GrabGift is a new online platform that will help TELE customers to find a special gifts for their family or friends.  TELE offers two product types: e-Voucher dan voucher Card with nominal from Rp. 10,000 to Rp 100,000. The customer also can decide the design by them self. 

 

APLN RECORDED 600 UNITS OF SALES

PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) succeeded in selling more than 600 units of Podomoro Park Bandung in just a year. Such robust result is due to the company’s change in focus from investors to end users. As the company views that industry outlook is getting better, APLN will speed up Bhayugriya cluster launching to Oct. 10.  

 

BLTZ RECEIVED A US$ 410M LOANS

PT Graha Layar Prima Tbk (BLTZ) received a US$ 410M of loans from Korean Development Bank (KDB) Singapore. It is guaranteed by Corporate Guarantee from CJ CGV Co., Ltd as the company’s shareholder. The proceeds will be used for working capital.

 

ARTO PLANS TO TRANSFORM TO GOJEK BANK

PT Bank Artos Indonesia Tbk (ARTO) is reportedly planning to transform to Gojek Bank (GoBank) following a 51% shares acquisition by PT Metamorfosis Ekosistem Indonesia (MEI) and Wealth Track Technology (WTT). Therefore, the company will hold an Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) in Oct. 24 in order to ask for shareholder’s consent regarding management’s restructuring. 

 

JPFA BUILD HATCHERY AND TEACHING FARM IN ACEH

PT Indojaya Agrinusa, the subsidiary of PT Japfa Comfeed Tbk. (JPFA) build hatchery and teaching farm in Aceh to meet the demand of the domestic market in Aceh and its surroundings. The farm itself consists of Commercial Farm Closed House, Commercial Farm Open House Stage, and Commercial Farm Open House Postal with a capacity of 10,000, 5,500, and 4,500 chickens, respectively.

 

BSDE ACHIEVED 85% OF MARKETING SALES TARGET

As of 9M19, PT Bumi Serpong Damai, Tbk. (BSDE) recorded Rp 5.3T of marketing sales, flattish if compared with 9M18’s Rp 5.4T. It was supported by sale of land to Indonesia’s government for Serpong - Balaraja toll road construction works. Residential contributed Rp 2.4T, while commercial amounting to Rp 2.6T to marketing sales.

 

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

JCI is POSITIVE with expected range of 5,980 - 6,080

JCI inched lower to 6,023. Candlestick just bounced up from lower BB line toward MA line. EMA 5, 20 50 still in death cross pattern, just waiting confirmation to form golden cross pattern, while Parabolic Stop and Reversal red dot still appear. MACD start to positive, while RSI and Stochastic flatened. Support lays at 5,767 while the resistance hangs at 6,086/230.

 

ACES   

Support            1,650

Resistance        1,850

Target Price      1,900

           

LINK    

Support            3,800

Resistance        4,250

Target Price      4,500

           

TLKM  

Support            4,200

Resistance        4,450

Target Price      4,500

 

BSDE

Support            1,300

Resistance        1,400

Target Price      1,440

 

PTBA

Support            2,120

Resistance        2,500

Target Price      2,410

 

TKIM

Support            9,700

Resistance        10,750

Target Price      10,500

 

PGAS

Support            1,955

Resistance        2,290

Target Price      2,200

 

EXCL

Support            3,250

Resistance        3,600

Target Price      3,555

 

 

           

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

 

Fri October 11Th, 2019

Disclaimer

En Lorem Ipsum In Eiusmod.

EN HOME LOREM IPSUM EU NISI NISI LABORE ANIM REPREHENDERIT ADIPISICING SED LABORE QUIS UT TEMPOR ESSE QUIS CILLUM VENIAM CILLUM SUNT NISI CILLUM UT FUGIAT FUGIAT UT OFFICIA ET QUIS.

En Lorem ipsum Velit sit magna adipisicing laborum eu voluptate exercitation minim sit ex incididunt exercitation ut in sunt culpa quis magna sed dolor in et amet sunt id fugiat sint laboris sed officia est id officia eiusmod eu reprehenderit ullamco sed esse aliquip ex minim occaecat amet ad nulla voluptate do officia in reprehenderit quis officia dolore pariatur in quis consectetur ut nostrud aliqua sed officia fugiat nisi incididunt anim in laborum.

Lorem ipsum Dolor dolor dolore quis magna nulla aute ea sed velit id amet ut id minim proident cupidatat anim pariatur ex do dolore ut sit mollit ex voluptate consequat sit eu esse cillum exercitation eu dolore pariatur sunt et ut est Ut dolore id voluptate qui Ut in fugiat non exercitation Excepteur sunt magna ullamco sint do quis laboris dolore dolore pariatur laboris nulla mollit nisi laboris magna in aute Ut enim Excepteur est culpa in enim officia enim ea cillum fugiat dolore proident officia eiusmod pariatur in elit et aliquip esse culpa sint in fugiat aliquip cupidatat non id aliquip sit ad reprehenderit mollit dolor aliqua Duis in amet exercitation ut ut cillum et adipisicing qui aliqua.