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Morning Dew 23 September 2019

FOKUS

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF NEW RIM CALCULATION

Bank Indonesia (BI) decision to further cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps to 5.25% hopefully will positively impact Indonesia’s economic growth. The rate cut is also supplemented with other macroprudential policies, namely (i) a relaxation policy on the loan to value (LTV) ratio to boost the property sector and (ii) the improvement of Macroprudential Intermediary Ratio (RIM). 

 

Just how effective the impact will be? The upper and lower bound of RIM is 84%-94%. The ratio is calculated by dividing the total loans distributed by the banks’ funding. Previously, the funding included in the calculation are only from third-party funds and issued securities. Under the new RIM, loans obtained by the banks are added as part of funding.

 

Based on our calculation, using the latest banking statistics from OJK as of June 2019, banks RIM had reached 93.2%. The ratio even hit above 94% in May 2019. The new RIM calculation will provide more capacity for banks to meet the demand for loans. Under the new RIM calculation, banks RIM in June 2019 was only 88.9%. Overall, banks will potentially have an extra of Rp286.8 trillion of funds to be optimized to distribute loans.

 

JCI

On Friday (20/09), JCI lost -13 points (-0.21%) to 6,231. The total volume traded during the session was 16.4B shares with a value amounting to Rp 10.9T. Foreign investors posted a net sell of Rp833.8 billion, bringing the YTD net foreign buy to Rp53.9 trillion.

 

Three sectors strengthened: infrastructure (+1.21%), mining (+0.86%), and agriculture (+0.43%). On the contrary, basic industry lost -0.75%, trade lost -0.65%, and manufacturing fell -0.60%. Stocks supporting the JCI were TLKM (+1.9%), SMMA (+10.0%), and SMGR (+3.2%). On the other hand, stock weighing down JCI were BBRI (-1.4%), BBCA (-0.7%), and UNVR (-0.9%).

 

U.S. NEWS

Both of U.S. stocks and U.S Treasury yields fell after a Chinese agriculture delegation canceled a planned visit to Montana next week. The cancellation came after Donald Trump said that he wanted a complete trade deal with the Asian nation, not just an agreement for China to buy more U.S. agricultural goods. 

 

The DJIA was down 0.59% at 26,934.6 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.49% to 2,992.03. The Nasdaq dropped 0.80% to 8,117.67. The benchmark 10 years notes gained 15/32 to yield 1.7215%. Two-year notes were up 3/32 to yield 1.6872. 30- year bonds rose 1-7/32, yielding 2.1574%.

 

Oil prices ended mixed, Brent crude oil rose by +0.39% to US$64.65 per barrel and WTI down by -0.07 to US$58.09 per barrel. WTI prices slightly down after Donald Trump authorized the release of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, if needed to keep the markets well-supplied and informed all appropriate agencies to expedite approvals of the oil pipelines currently in the permitting process in Texas and various other States. Brent prices slightly up as fears sparks over the supply shortfalls following last weekend's attacks on Saudi Arabia.

 

COMPANY UPDATE

TLKM EXPANDS INDIHOME TO ROTE ISLAND

PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (TLKM) proves its commitment to bring connectivity to 514 district capitals across the country, including the outermost and least developed regions, often referred to as 3T. TLKM will expand its IndiHome internet provider services to Rote Island in East Nusa Tenggara. 

 

PEHA RIGHTS ISSUE SCHEDULED IN NOVEMBER 2019

During RUPSLB, PT Phapros Tbk (PEHA) has agreed upon and scheduled its rights issue in November 2019 with total emission of Rp1.1 trillion. The Company will issue as much as 862.7 million ordinary shares with nominal value of Rp100. Half of the funds raised will be used for the Company’s and its subsidiary’s organic and inorganic expansion. The other 20% will be used to repay some of its short-term debts while the remaining 30% will be used as working capital.

 

ANTM ACQUISITION PLAN

PT Aneka Tambang Tbk. (ANTM) plans to acquire new gold mines before its mining permit in Pongkor expire on June 2021 although the company can still extend the permit by 2x10 year. As of 2018, the company's gold reserve was 19 tons out of 42 total resources. The company continues to conduct both vertical and lateral exploration especially at the depth of 425m from the sea surface. ANTM will mine the new mines located in Papandayan with a potential gold reserve of 3.5 tons. For FY19, ANTM targets to produce 2,036 kg of gold from Pongkor and Cibaliung gold mines. Moreover, gold sales are forecasted to grow 15% to 32,036 kg. As of 1H19, ANTM sold 49% of the total FY19 target. Additionally, the company is currently also exploring Bintang Mountains, Papua, and it will need 5 years to start the production.

 

MUFG GRANTED TOWR'S SUBSIDIARY RP 250B LOAN

The subsidiary of PT Sarana Menara Nusantara Tbk (TOWR), PT Iforte Solusi Infotek (Iforte) obtained Rp 250B loan from Bank MUFG with 12-month maturity since 18 September 2019. The guarantor for the loan facility is PT Profesional Telekomunikasi (Protelindo). The rate used is Jakarta Interbank Offering Rate (JIBOR) with 1.25% margin annually.

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

JCI is POSITIVE with expected range of 6,210-6,300

JCI inched lower to 6,231. The resistance hangs at 6,400/580 and support lays at 6,200/160. RSI was flat while MACD was negative. Stochastic cross up and start to leave the oversold area. Parabolic Stop and Reversal red dot still appears along with EMA 5&20 still in dead cross pattern. Hence, we are positive on today’s trading session.

 

ACES   

Support            1,650

Resistance        1,850

Target Price      1,900

           

ANTM 

Support            1,057

Resistance        1,167

Target Price      1,145

           

ASII

Support            6,590

Resistance        7,090

Target Price      7,025

           

KAEF   

Support            2,830

Resistance        3,200

Target Price      3,110

           

LINK    

Support            3,800

Resistance        4,250

Target Price      4,500

           

PPRE   

Support            340

Resistance        390

Target Price      390

           

PTPP   

Support            1,750

Resistance        1,810

Target Price      2,000

           

PWON 

Support            620

Resistance        640

Target Price      700

           

TLKM  

Support            4,200

Resistance        4,450

Target Price      4,500

           

TSPC   

Support            1,545

Resistance        1,700

Target Price      1,650

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Mon September 23Th, 2019

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