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Morning Dew 25 September 2019

FOKUS

INDONESIA EXPORT AND IMPORT

The development of Indonesia's foreign trade for the period January - July 2019 recorded a deficit of US$ 1.89B, originated from a non-oil and gas surplus of US$ 3.03B and an oil and gas deficit of US$ 4.92B. For January - July 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, exports decreased by 8.02% while imports also decreased by 9.0%.

 

The largest Non-Oil and Gas exports came from 27 mineral fuels valued at US $ 13.29B. The largest non-oil imports came from 84 mechanical machines / aircraft worth US $ 15.22B. China led the country of origin of imports worth US $ 24.73B and for export destination countries worth US $ 13.68B.

 

For semester 1 of 2019, the five most important export commodities from Indonesia came from the textile industry and textile products worth US$ 2.25B (+ 7.4%), palm oil US$ 1.49B (-69%), forest products US$ 1.39B (+21.5 %), electronics US$ 899.3M (+ 1.2%), and the last from automotive US$ 888.7M (+ 12.2%).

 

JCI

On Tuesday (24/09), JCI was again closed lower to 6,137 or down by 68.6 points (-1.10%) with total volume traded of 11.6B shares. The value of transactions during the trading session reached Rp 7.86T. The foreign net sell on Tuesday hit Rp 773.2B, while YTD the total foreign trading value was still a buy of Rp 52.9T.

 

Yesterday, all sectors retreated with the deepest plunge was mining (-1.99%), followed by miscellaneous industry (-1.72%), and basic industry (-1.71%). Daily up-movers were EMTK (+22.6%), POLL (+5.6%), and JKON (+16.8%). On the opposite side, the daily laggard stocks were BBCA (-1.3%), BBRI (-1.7%), and ASII (-2.3%).

 

U.S. NEWS

U.S. stocks closed lower after the House of Representatives pursuing an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump and after Donald Trump accused China of manipulating its currency and stealing intellectual property in a U.N. speech, undermining investor sentiment that had been improving on hopes for successful trade talks in October. Moreover, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a three-month low of 125.1 this month from 134.2 in August. The DJIA was down 0.53% at 26,808.31, the S&P 500 fell 0.84% at 2,966.63. The Nasdaq was down 1.46% at 7,993.63.

 

U.S Treasury yields continue to fall as equities sank, the benchmark 10 years notes gained 20/32 to yield 1.6404. 30-year bonds rose 1-8/32, yielding 2.0974%.

 

Oil prices plunged after Donald Trump ratcheted up the U.S.-China trade war again and coupled by oil supply shortage risks due to the recent Saudi Arabia and Iran situation. Cited from Reuters, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday said he was open to discuss small changes to the 2015 nuclear deal if the U.S. lifted sanctions on his country. If Iran continues to lose European support, they may have to choose to risk further escalation or attempt to appease Trump and deliver some tweaks to the 2015 nuclear deal. Brent crude oil down by -3.43% to US$62.56 per barrel, while WTI down by -2.80% to US$57.0 per barrel.

 

COMPANY UPDATE

BMRI EXPECTS REMITTANCE BECOMES SUPPORTERS OF FEE-BASED INCOME

As of August 2019, the remittance frequency to reach 600k transactions with a total volume of US$ 13M. As of 1H19, the remittance fee-based income grew 7% Y/Y to Rp 91B, and it's expected the FY19 fee-based income to reach Rp 124B. To get more incoming retail remittance customers, BMRI  develops alternative transaction channel to serve remittance from overseas, agency business model as well as partnership. While for the outgoing one, BMRI implements tactical free transfer program (TT SWIFT) in Mandiri branches.

 

MGRO AGGRESSIVE TARGET

PT Berlian Inti Mekar, the subsidiary of  PT Mahkota Group Tbk (MGRO), will acquire CPO plant in South Sumatra with a value of Rp 120B, of which the fund coming from the bank loan. The production capacity of this plant is 45 tons of fresh fruit bunch. As additional info, the company is currently completing the CPO refinery construction in Dumai Riau, which will produce CPO derivatives such as Olein, stearin, and oleochemical with cooking oil production capacity of 1,500 tons daily. Besides,  MGRO also builds kernel crushing plant, of which the progress enters the end phase. This plant will process 400 tons of FFB per day. In 2019, MGRO will push its production target to 203,308 tons (+4.95%). MGRO targets the revenue to improve 183% Y/Y to Rp 5.66T supported by refinery revenue to reach 40% of the total revenue. 

 

SATU TO OPERATE STAY MAJAPAHIT KOSTEL

PT Kota Satu Properti Tbk (SATU) signed an agreement to operate Stay Majapahit Kostel - a budget hotel with 36 rooms, which is expected to operate in November 2019. The hotel will be operated by COHG Hotels as brand hotel management under SATU. Going forward, SATU plans to operate 30 hotels across Indonesia.

 

MYOH OPTIMISM IN REACHING FY19 PRODUCTION TARGET

PT Samindo Resources Tbk. (MYOH) has realized 61.4% of FY19 overburden removal target or 35.7 bcm as of 8M19. Before the rainy season comes, MYOH pushes the overburden removal. Every second semester, the company elevates its production because mining is more conducive. As of 8M19, the total realization of production target has hit 72.89% or 10.7M tons. Even though last year the production only reached 92.52% of 10.7 tons of target, the company is positive to hit the target this year.

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

JCI is NEGATIVE with expected range of 6,050-6,180

JCI inched lower to 6,137 breaching its nearest support at 6,160. So the next support lay at 6,022 while the resistance hangs at 6,400/580. RSI curled lower along with MACD was negative. Parabolic Stop and Reversal red dot still appears along with EMA 5&20 still in dead cross pattern. Stochastic leaning in the oversold area along with candle stick breach the Bollinger Band lower band. Hence, we are negative on today’s trading session.

 

ACES   

Support            1,650

Resistance        1,850

Target Price      1,900

           

ANTM 

Support            1,057

Resistance        1,167

Target Price      1,145

           

ASII

Support            6,590

Resistance        7,090

Target Price      7,025

           

KAEF   

Support            2,830

Resistance        3,200

Target Price      3,110

           

LINK    

Support            3,800

Resistance        4,250

Target Price      4,500

           

PPRE   

Support            340

Resistance        390

Target Price      390

           

PWON 

Support            620

Resistance        640

Target Price      700

           

TLKM  

Support            4,200

Resistance        4,450

Target Price      4,500

           

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Wed September 25Th, 2019

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