Logo Minnapadi
aboutusmpi.png
<< Back To Daily Report

Morning Dew 26 September 2019

FOKUS

CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT

On Sept. 24, 2019, Indonesia National Budget has finally been approved. Next year, the government would like to focus on education, healthcare, social security, and infrastructure. We would like to underline the 2020 macroeconomic assumptions, which only oil-related assumptions changed (see Figure 1). National income is expected to hit Rp2,233.2T, up by Rp11.6T from draft budget estimate, which comprises of tax revenue (83.5%), non-tax revenue (16.4%), and bequest (0.1%). To achieve such target, it seems that the government would like to widen tax basis and tighten compliance going forward.

 

State budget is expected to reach Rp2,540.4T, up by Rp11.6T from the draft budget estimate. Indeed, infrastructure budget went up to Rp423.3T vs. Rp415T for 2019, which is in line with the government’s commitment to focus on infrastructure development. As a result, the government has set budget deficit at Rp307.2T (1.76% of GDP), lower than Rp310.8T (1.93% of GDP) in 2019. State debt amounting to Rp351.9T will be used to cover deficit, down from Rp373.9T in 2019.

 

JCI

JCI was closed positive at 6,156.40 (+0.14%) during the Wednesday (25/09) trading session. Total trading volume yesterday was 15.66B share with a total value of Rp 7.97T. The net foreign sell on Wednesday trading session was 769.74B shares making the YTD net foreign buy became Rp 52.17T.

 

7 out of 10 sectors was closed positive, with the highest advance led by agriculture (+0.82%), followed by basic industry (+0.71%), and infrastructure (+0.50%). Meanwhile, miscellaneous industry (-0.28%), finance (-0.21%), and mining (-0.15%) retreated. HMSP (+1.8%), CPIN (+5.2%), and BRPT (+3.1%) were the leader stocks supporting JCI. In contrast, BBRI (-0.7%), INTP (-4.0%), and BMRI (-0.7%) were the laggard stocks pressuring JCI performance.

 

U.S. NEWS

U.S. main stock indexes closed higher after Donald Trump said that a U.S.-China trade deal could happen sooner than expected. Hopes for a trade deal with China are taking precedence over Donald Trump’s impeachment. From the trade front, China reportedly is buying more pork from the U.S.. On the other hand, U.S. August home sales rose 7.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 713,000, which was just shy of the 12-year high set in June, and were up 18% (Y/Y). The DJIA was up 0.61% at 26,970.71 and S&P 500 was up 0.61% at 2,984.84. The Nasdaq was up 1.05% at 8,077.38.

U.S Treasury yields rose boosted by trade front optimism. The benchmark 10 years notes fell 28/32 to yield 1.7320. 2-year notes fell 5/32 yielding 1.6775. 30-year bonds fell 1-27/32, yielding 2.1771.

Oil prices fell as U.S. government data revealed a second weekly climb in domestic crude inventories, by 2.4 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 20. Also weighing on prices were news reports saying Saudi Arabia had restored most of crude production capacity, recovering from attacks on its facilities earlier this month. Brent crude oil down by -1.13% to US$62.39 per barrel, while WTI down by -1.34% to US$56.52 per barrel.

MACRO UPDATE

ADB'S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ON INDONESIA

Due to domestic consumption, for this year and next year, Indonesia will still record positive growth according to economic publication by Asian Development Bank. Even though, the growth in 2019 (5.1%) was lower than 2018 (5.2%), it is expected that in 2020, the growth will bounce back to 5.2%. According to Winfred Wicklein, the fundamentally Indonesia's economy is still solid. Well-maintained fiscal, stable prices, and safe forex reserves position are factors supporting the economy. Furthermore, Wicklein views that the human resources development is the key factor to increase the Indonesia competitiveness to push stronger investment. In 2020, ADB forecasts that private investment will getting better in line with reformation policy enhancing business climate as well as fast economic modernization. From 2019 to 2020, inflation is expected to remain stable from 3.2% to 3.3%. Furthermore, the trade balance deficit is forecasted to widen from 2.7% in 2019 to 2.9% in 2020. Due to growth of the young generation, the service segment will improve in line with online service usage. Industry sector will also improve because of metropolitan property construction. Two external risk of Indonesia according to Emma Allen, ADB's economist, includes the tension of global trade as well as weakening trade momentum.

 

COMPANY UPDATE

NZIA'S HUGE SALES TARGET GROWTH IN 2020

PT Nusantara Almazia Tbk. (NZIA) targets to be able to sell 300 subsidized houses in 2019 through FLPP schemes. Furthermore, the number will be 5x the 2019 target. One house revenue is around Rp 150M. Therefore, the company's revenue in 2020 will be between Rp 210-215B (+366%). The company is so optimistic, because according to them the maximum number of houses left is only 10 units annually. NZIA will need Rp 75B to build 1500 houses, of which the fund will come from bank loans (Rp 22B) and IPO as well as internal cash (Rp 53B). As additional information, the total fund obtained from IPO was Rp 100B, 37.36% of which for taking offer PT Serena Inti Sejati, the owner of location permit over 60 ha land in Kabupaten Karawang.

 

TPIA WILL MERGER WITH PBI

PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk. (TPIA) will merge with PT Petrokimia Butadiene Indonesia (PBI), which is a subsidiary of TPIA with a 99.98% stake. The merger is intended to create a more integrated petrochemical company in Indonesia. This combination creates a company that is stronger and able to compete with major regional petrochemical players who are largely integrated. An effective statement from the Financial Services Authority (OJK) on the merger plan is expected to be obtained on November 4, 2019. TPIA will hold an Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders (EGMS) to seek approval from shareholders for the plan on November 15, 2019. The Company is targeting a business merger it was effective on January 1, 2020.


BBTN TO JOIN PARTNERSHIP WITH APLN TO OFFER MORTGAGE

PT Bank Tabungan Negara Tbk (BBTN) established partnership with PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) for mortgage loan distribution. The favorable terms are valid until Dec. 31 2019, including: 2-year fixed rate at 5%, 5% down payment, free of provision and administration fees, as well as life insurance discount at 10%. BBTN hopes to increase housing/apartment loans realization by Rp1T/month.

 

IPCC REVISED REVENUE GROWTH TARGET

PT Indonesia Kendaraan Terminal Tbk (IPCC) revised down its revenue growth target to 10% from previously 30%. As of 1H19, the company posted throughput growth for completely build-up segment at 7.93%. Truck & bus segment slipped -17.02%, while spare parts and heavy equipment were also down -27.92% and -36.48%, respectively.

 

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

JCI is POSITIVE with expected range of 6,100-6,180

JCI inched higher to 6,146. The support lay at 6,022 while the resistance hangs at 6,282/400. RSI curled lower along with MACD was negative. Parabolic Stop and Reversal red dot still appears along with EMA 5&20 still in dead cross pattern. Stochastic in the oversold area, but strat to cross up along with candle stick breach the Bollinger Band lower band and forming white hammer body. Hence, we are Positive on today’s trading session.

 

ACES   

Support            1,650

Resistance        1,850

Target Price      1,900

           

ANTM 

Support            1,057

Resistance        1,167

Target Price      1,145

           

ASII

Support            6,590

Resistance        7,090

Target Price      7,025

           

KAEF   

Support            2,830

Resistance        3,200

Target Price      3,110

           

LINK    

Support            3,800

Resistance        4,250

Target Price      4,500

           

PPRE   

Support            340

Resistance        390

Target Price      390

           

PWON 

Support            620

Resistance        640

Target Price      700

           

TLKM  

Support            4,200

Resistance        4,450

Target Price      4,500

           

 

DISCLAIMER

This research report is prepared by PT MINNA PADI INVESTAMA SEKURITAS Tbk. for information purposes only and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. The report has been prepared without regard to individual financial circumstance, need or objective of person to receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on or referred to in this report or otherwise will depend on an investor’s individual circumstance and objective and should be independently evaluated and confirmed by such investor, and, if appropriate, with his professional advisers independently before adoption or implementation (either as is or varied).

Thu September 26Th, 2019

Disclaimer

En Lorem Ipsum In Eiusmod.

EN HOME LOREM IPSUM EU NISI NISI LABORE ANIM REPREHENDERIT ADIPISICING SED LABORE QUIS UT TEMPOR ESSE QUIS CILLUM VENIAM CILLUM SUNT NISI CILLUM UT FUGIAT FUGIAT UT OFFICIA ET QUIS.

En Lorem ipsum Velit sit magna adipisicing laborum eu voluptate exercitation minim sit ex incididunt exercitation ut in sunt culpa quis magna sed dolor in et amet sunt id fugiat sint laboris sed officia est id officia eiusmod eu reprehenderit ullamco sed esse aliquip ex minim occaecat amet ad nulla voluptate do officia in reprehenderit quis officia dolore pariatur in quis consectetur ut nostrud aliqua sed officia fugiat nisi incididunt anim in laborum.

Lorem ipsum Dolor dolor dolore quis magna nulla aute ea sed velit id amet ut id minim proident cupidatat anim pariatur ex do dolore ut sit mollit ex voluptate consequat sit eu esse cillum exercitation eu dolore pariatur sunt et ut est Ut dolore id voluptate qui Ut in fugiat non exercitation Excepteur sunt magna ullamco sint do quis laboris dolore dolore pariatur laboris nulla mollit nisi laboris magna in aute Ut enim Excepteur est culpa in enim officia enim ea cillum fugiat dolore proident officia eiusmod pariatur in elit et aliquip esse culpa sint in fugiat aliquip cupidatat non id aliquip sit ad reprehenderit mollit dolor aliqua Duis in amet exercitation ut ut cillum et adipisicing qui aliqua.